Value-oriented research on individual public companies: what the business earns, what the balance sheet can bear, what the shares may be worth, and what could go wrong.
A daily fear-and-greed reading from public market data, and the behavioral bias likely at work. Educational only.
Each name links to a full research note built from SEC filings and fund documents, with every figure sourced and every valuation assumption stated.
Search, YouTube and Google Cloud: Q2 2026 revenue up 24% to $119.8 billion, Cloud up 82%, but 2026 capex of $195–205 billion has turned quarterly free cash flow negative. At 28.6× 2026 consensus EPS (excluding investment gains), the base case implies about 15% a year.
AI-driven mobile advertising platform: Q2 2026 revenue up 53% at a 78% operating margin, yet the shares are down 64% from their high on fears that growth has peaked. At 17.1× 2026 consensus EPS, the base case implies about 21% a year; capped, about 5%.
Concentrated, leveraged growth fund with a 1.91% expense ratio: SpaceX is 35.6% and Tesla 14.8% of net assets. Returned 25.2% a year over ten years. Our look-through projection, with SpaceX held flat, implies about 6.5% a year.
Custom AI chips plus VMware software: Q3 FY2026 revenue up 86% to $29.6 billion, with AI chip revenue up 221%. Holding FY2027 consensus EPS flat (our cycle cap) at today's 30.1× forward P/E, the base case implies about 11% a year.
Children's-book publisher and Usborne distributor selling mainly through its PaperPie direct-sales network: revenue down from $204.6 million to $22.9 million in five years. No bank debt and 0.27× tangible book, but recurring losses and no analyst estimates, so our standard projection is not meaningful.
Memory maker at the peak of an AI/HBM upcycle: fiscal 2026 revenue of $133.2 billion at a 74.6% operating margin (unaudited). Holding FY2028 consensus EPS flat (our cycle cap) at today's 6.6× forward P/E, the base case implies about 2% a year over five years.
AI accelerator leader: fiscal 2026 revenue up 65% to $215.9 billion at a 71% gross margin. Holding FY2028 consensus EPS flat (our cycle cap) at today's 24.5× forward P/E, the base case implies about 11% a year over five years.
Database company turned AI-infrastructure builder: $664 billion of contracted backlog but −$28.7 billion of trailing free cash flow. At 16.9× forward EPS and analysts' 26% growth, the base case implies about 22% a year; capped like the chip names, about 6%.
NAND flash pure play spun off from Western Digital in February 2025: fiscal 2026 revenue up 175% to $20.2 billion after three loss-making years. Holding FY2028 consensus EPS flat at today's 8.1× forward P/E, the base case implies about 4% a year over five years.
Listed in June 2026 at $135 (the ticker once belonged to a SPAC ETF). Starlink, launch and AI at a $2.05 trillion market value. Current-year consensus EPS is negative, so our standard five-year projection is not meaningful.
AI server builder whose revenue grew 78% to $39.1 billion in fiscal 2026 while free cash flow was −$7.0 billion. At 9.5× forward earnings and 18% annual EPS growth, the base case implies about 15% a year, if earnings turn into cash.
The leading-edge foundry: Q2 2026 revenue up 34% to US$40.2 billion at a 67.7% gross margin. Holding 2027 consensus flat at the ADR's 26.9× forward P/E, which includes a ~17% ADR premium, the base case implies about 5% a year.
Figures come from 10-K and 10-Q filings, company releases and named market-data sources. When we can't verify a number, we leave it out or mark it unavailable.
We project five-year value from today's P/E with transparent bear, base and bull cases and list every assumption. We compare the implied return with today's price rather than relying on a story.
Accounting quality, governance, cash conversion, dilution and concentration get as much space as growth. Each note says plainly what could go wrong.
Pathos Investments (pathosinvestments.com) publishes independent, long-horizon research on individual public companies. Our notes focus on the questions a value investor asks: how durable the business is, how much cash it actually generates, how strong the balance sheet is, how management allocates capital, and what the shares may be worth under sober assumptions.
Notes are dated. Price-based figures are tied to a stated close, and fundamentals to a stated filing. Markets move and facts change after publication, so check the "as of" dates before relying on any figure.