I.Executive Summary
AppLovin runs an advertising platform: its Axon AI engine decides which ad to show in which mobile app, for advertisers who pay for the installs and purchases it delivers. Since selling its own mobile games in June 2025 it is a pure advertising business, and an extraordinarily profitable one. In the quarter to 30 June 2026 revenue grew 53% to $1.92 billion, operating margin was 78% and net income was $1.27 billion. The company has almost no capital needs: free cash flow was $3.95 billion in 2025, of which $2.19 billion went to buybacks.
The shares have collapsed anyway, to $268.22 (2 October 2026 close), 64% below their 52-week high. Second-quarter revenue of $1.92 billion fell short of the $1.94 billion analysts expected, and the stock dropped 19% the next day. Since then an industry research firm has argued that AppLovin's market-share gains in mobile games have stalled as Unity competes harder, and analysts have trimmed 2027 estimates. At the current price the shares trade at 17.1× 2026 consensus EPS and 13.4× 2027.
The question for AppLovin is not profitability, which is exceptional, but durability: whether a business that grew revenue 70% last year can keep growing once its core mobile-gaming market is saturated, and whether e-commerce advertising becomes a second engine.
Our illustrative five-year P/E projection holds today's 17.1× P/E on 2026 consensus EPS and takes the 2026–2027 consensus as Years 1–2. AppLovin's earnings are not tied to a capacity cycle, so we apply our non-cyclical rule; because analysts' long-term estimate (37.55%) exceeds the growth they expect for 2027 (27.7%), we use the lower figure rounded down: 27% a year in the base case, 3 points lower or higher in the bear and bull cases, with exit multiples 15% lower or higher. That gives Year-5 prices of $555 (bear), $702 (base) and $865 (bull), against today's $268.22: about +21.2% a year in the base case (+15.7% to +26.4%). Discounted at 10% a year, the base case is worth $436 today, +62% versus the price. Capped like the chip companies (EPS held at 2027 consensus), the base case would be about $343 (+5.0% a year). *All values are Pathos's illustrative estimates, not price targets or recommendations.
II.Business Overview
Axon Ads Manager is the core: advertisers set a target return and pay for results, and AppLovin's Axon AI recommendation engine bids for them in auctions across thousands of mobile apps. MAX is the in-app bidding (mediation) tool that app publishers use to auction their ad space, which gives AppLovin a view of a large share of mobile-game ad supply. Adjust measures campaign results for marketers, and Wurl distributes streaming video for connected-TV channels. Clients range from independent game studios to large platforms such as Meta and Google (10-K).
From games to advertising. AppLovin sold its Apps business (its own mobile games) to Tripledot on 30 June 2025 for $715.6 million in cash and shares, keeping a 22% stake. Revenue from continuing operations rose from $1.84 billion in 2023 to $5.48 billion in 2025. The company is now extending Axon to e-commerce and other advertisers outside gaming; third-party data cited by Citi counted 13,105 e-commerce clients on 18 September 2026 (24/7 Wall St).
Why it matters for value. AppLovin earns very high returns on almost no capital: 898 employees, capex of $0.5 million in 2025 and an operating margin of 76% for the year. The risk is that such economics invite competition, and that growth depends on one engine (Axon) and one market (mobile games) until e-commerce proves itself.
III.Share Price & Valuation Multiples
Price as of Nasdaq close, 2 Oct 2026 · Fundamentals: FY2025 10-K and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q · Consensus retrieved 4 Oct 2026| Metric | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | $268.22 | Close, 2 Oct 2026 ($290.43 on 30 Sep) |
| 52-week range | $266.84 – $738.01 | Yahoo Finance; down 60% year to date (Finviz) |
| Market capitalisation | $89.8B | 334.65M Class A and B shares (10-Q cover, 31 Jul 2026) × $268.22 |
| Enterprise value | $90.2B | Plus debt $3.52B, less cash $3.05B (30 Jun 2026) |
| P/E, trailing 12 months | 20.6× | TTM diluted EPS $13.01 |
| P/E, 2026 consensus | 17.1× | $15.66, 27 analysts (Yahoo Finance) |
| P/E, 2027 consensus | 13.4× | $20.00, 27 analysts |
| EV / EBITDA (TTM) | 16.6× | Finviz |
| Price / sales (TTM) | 13.1× | TTM revenue $6.83B |
| Price / operating cash flow (TTM) | 19.8× | TTM operating cash flow $4.53B; capex negligible |
| Price / book | 28.4× | Equity $3.16B at 30 Jun 2026 |
| Dividend | None | Cash returned through buybacks |
A year ago AppLovin traded at 84× trailing earnings (chart in Section IV); today it is 20.6×, and 17.1× this year's consensus, low for a business with 78% operating margins and 53% revenue growth. The market is pricing a sharp slowdown: consensus itself implies EPS growth slowing from about 56% this year to about 28% in 2027. For context only, the mean analyst target compiled by Finviz is $498.25, and 11 analysts lowered 2027 estimates in the past 30 days (Yahoo Finance).
IV.Five-Year Financial Record
Source: AppLovin FY2025 10-K (continuing operations, restated) and Adjusted EBITDA margins as reported; 2026 = Yahoo Finance consensus of $8.10B (31 analysts, retrieved 4 Oct 2026), with the first-half 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure that excludes stock compensation.
| US$ millions, calendar year | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,793.1 | 2,817.1 | 1,841.8 | 3,224.1 | 5,480.7 |
| Growth | 92.5% | 0.9% | n/m | 75.1% | 70.0% |
| Operating income | 150.0 | (47.8) | 772.4 | 1,911.0 | 4,151.9 |
| Operating margin | 5.4% | −1.7% | 41.9% | 59.3% | 75.8% |
| Net income* | 35.4 | (192.7) | 457.8 | 1,589.5 | 3,433.2 |
| Diluted EPS (US$)* | 0.09 | (0.52) | 1.26 | 4.56 | 10.04 |
| Operating cash flow | 361.9 | 412.8 | 1,061.5 | 2,099.0 | 3,971.1 |
| Free cash flow | 345.2 | 388.0 | 1,037.1 | 2,073.4 | 3,952.0 |
The record has two halves. Until 2022 AppLovin was a games publisher with a growing ad network: revenue stalled in 2022 and it lost money. Since Axon's upgrade in 2023 the advertising business has transformed it: revenue from continuing operations grew 75% in 2024 and 70% in 2025, operating margin rose from 42% to 76%, and EPS from continuing operations went from $1.26 to $10.04. In the first half of 2026 revenue grew 56% and diluted EPS was $7.32; the third-quarter guide of $2.055–2.085 billion implies growth of 46–48%, still fast but slower.
Bars: quarterly revenue and net income, US$ billions, continuing operations only (excluding the Apps business sold in 2025). Restated quarterly figures on this basis start in Q1 FY2024, so the chart covers ten quarters rather than five years; Q1 FY2024 is first-half minus Q2. Line: trailing P/E = closing share price at quarter-end ÷ trailing-12-month diluted EPS (sum of the last four quarters; fiscal Q4 derived as full-year minus nine-month figures). Gaps in the line: no P/E until four quarters of continuing-operations EPS are available (Q1 FY24–Q3 FY24). Sources: Form 10-Q/10-K data via SEC XBRL company facts; Yahoo Finance price history. Hover over a quarter for exact values.
Total tangible book value, US$ billions = shareholders’ equity minus goodwill and other intangible assets, at quarter-end. Tangible book was negative until Q4 FY2025 because goodwill and intangibles from past acquisitions exceeded equity, which buybacks had reduced. Balance sheets before the 2025 sale of the Apps business include that business. Per-share values in the tooltip use period-end shares outstanding. Source: balance sheets in Forms 10-Q/10-K via SEC XBRL company facts. Hover over a quarter for the components and the value per share.
V.Cash Conversion & Earnings Quality
Earnings convert almost entirely into cash. Free cash flow was $3.95 billion in 2025 against $3.43 billion of net income from continuing operations, and trailing operating cash flow is $4.53 billion. Capital spending is negligible because the business runs on software and rented cloud capacity.
- Adjusted EBITDA flatters slightly. Second-quarter Adjusted EBITDA was $1,613.8M against net income of $1,266.5M; the gap is mainly tax, interest and stock compensation ($85.8M in the quarter).
- Stock compensation fell to $210.4M in 2025 (3.8% of revenue) from $369.4M in 2024, partly because games staff left with the Apps business; it was $169.0M in the first half of 2026.
- Taxes are now real. Cash taxes were $639.8M in the first half of 2026, up from $100.6M a year earlier.
- Spending is rising. Research and development was $99.9M in the second quarter, up 127% from a year earlier, as AppLovin invests in Axon and new markets.
VI.Balance Sheet Strength
| US$ millions | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and equivalents | 502.2 | 697.0 | 2,487.1 | 3,053.3 |
| Long-term debt | 3,120.9 | 3,509.0 | 3,513.0 | 3,515.1 |
| Goodwill | 1,497.1 | 1,457.7 | 1,540.0 | 1,518.6 |
| Intangible assets | 1,292.2 | 472.9 | 396.7 | 355.7 |
| Shareholders' equity | 1,256.3 | 1,089.8 | 2,134.7 | 3,163.0 |
| Tangible book value | (1,533.0) | (840.8) | 197.9 | 1,288.7 |
Debt is modest relative to earnings: $3.5 billion of senior unsecured notes against $3.05 billion of cash and trailing operating cash flow of $4.53 billion, so net debt is under $0.5 billion. AppLovin also has a $1.0 billion revolving credit facility; it drew $200 million in the first half of 2026 and had nothing outstanding at 30 June. Tangible book value turned positive only at the end of 2025, after years in which buybacks exceeded retained profits and acquisitions left goodwill and intangibles larger than equity.
VII.Capital Allocation & Dilution
| US$ millions | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share repurchases | – | 338.9 | 1,153.6 | 981.3 | 2,191.9 |
| Stock-based compensation | 133.2 | 191.6 | 363.1 | 369.4 | 210.4 |
| Diluted shares (M) | 342.8 | 371.6 | 362.6 | 347.8 | 342.0 |
- AppLovin has spent $4.7 billion on buybacks since 2022 and another $1.5B in the first half of 2026 (3.3 million shares, about $465 each). In the second quarter it repurchased and withheld 1.1 million shares for $551.3M, roughly $500 a share, nearly twice today's price. $1.8B of the authorisation remained at 30 June.
- Diluted shares fell from 371.6M in 2022 to 342.0M in 2025; 335.3M Class A and B shares were outstanding at 30 June 2026.
- Insiders sold while the company bought: Finviz's insider table shows CEO Adam Foroughi selling about $51M of stock in June 2026 at about $475–504, and director Eduardo Vivas selling 163,910 shares at $504.06 on 16 June.
- Control is concentrated: holders of the Class B shares (20 votes each), led by the CEO, held about 67% of the voting power at 30 June 2026 under a voting agreement. In April 2026 the board appointed Craig Billings as independent chair; the chief technology officer and chief legal officer stepped down in July and August.
VIII.Five-Year P/E Projection (Illustrative)
Method. Today's price divided by consensus EPS for 2026 (calendar year, half complete) gives the current P/E of 17.1×. We take 2026 and 2027 consensus EPS as Years 1 and 2 in every scenario, grow EPS at a stated annual rate in Years 3–5, and apply an exit P/E to Year-5 (2030) EPS. The base case holds today's P/E; the bear and bull cases use multiples 15% lower and higher and growth 3 points lower and higher. We compare the resulting Year-5 price with today's price as an annualized return, and discount it at a 10% required return to a present value. With the multiple held, the base-case return is simply EPS growth from Year 1 to Year 5.
| Input | Value | Type and basis |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | $268.22 | Source: Nasdaq close, 2 Oct 2026 |
| Year 0: FY2025 EPS | $10.04 continuing ops $9.75 GAAP incl. Apps | Source: FY2025 10-K. Continuing operations exclude the Apps business sold on 30 Jun 2025. AppLovin reports no non-GAAP EPS |
| Trailing P/E (2025 EPS) | 26.7× continuing 27.5× GAAP | Calculation: price ÷ FY2025 EPS. Shown for reference, not applied (see below) |
| Year 1: FY2026 consensus EPS | $15.66 | Source: Yahoo Finance, 27 analysts (range $13.22–$16.55), 4 Oct 2026 |
| Year 2: FY2027 consensus EPS | $20.00 | Source: Yahoo Finance, 27 analysts (range $16.00–$22.50); +27.7% on Year 1 |
| Current P/E (applied) | 17.1× | Calculation: price ÷ Year-1 consensus EPS (the fiscal year already under way) |
| Analysts' 5-year EPS growth | 37.5% a year | Source: Finviz "EPS next 5Y", 4 Oct 2026 |
| Revenue growth, past 5 years | 30.5% a year | Source: Finviz "Sales past 5Y" (includes the Apps business until 2025). EPS history not used: losses in 2020 and 2022 |
| EPS growth, Years 3–5 | Bear +24% · Base +27% · Bull +30% | Assumption. Base: lower of analysts' 5-year estimate (37.55%) and Year-2 consensus growth (27.7%), rounded down; bear and bull ±3 points |
| Exit P/E on Year-5 EPS | Bear 14.6× · Base 17.1× · Bull 19.7× | Assumption: current P/E −15% / held / +15% |
| Required return (present value) | 10% a year | Assumption |
Why today's forward P/E, not the trailing one. 2025 EPS from continuing operations ($10.04; $9.75 including the Apps business sold in June 2025) predates this year's growth: the first half of 2026 alone produced $7.32. The trailing P/E of 26.7× would imply a base Year-5 price of about $1,094, which we do not use. We hold the 17.1× the market pays on 2026 consensus. That multiple is low because the shares have fallen 64% from their 52-week high of $738.01; holding it assumes the market stays as sceptical in 2030 as it is today.
Year-by-year EPS
| US$ per share | Y0 FY2025A | Y1 FY2026E | Y2 FY2027E | Y3 FY2028E | Y4 FY2029E | Y5 FY2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear EPS | $10.04 | $15.66 | $20.00 | $24.80 | $30.75 | $38.13 |
| Base EPS | $10.04 | $15.66 | $20.00 | $25.40 | $32.26 | $40.97 |
| Bull EPS | $10.04 | $15.66 | $20.00 | $26.00 | $33.80 | $43.94 |
| Growth, Years 1–2 (consensus) | +56% | +28% | ||||
| Growth, Years 3–5 | Bear +24% · Base +27% · Bull +30% | |||||
Year-5 price and implied return
| US$ | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS growth, Years 3–5 | +24% | +27% | +30% |
| Year-5 EPS (FY2030) | $38.13 | $40.97 | $43.94 |
| Exit P/E | 14.6× | 17.1× | 19.7× |
| Year-5 price | $555 | $702 | $865 |
| vs. today's price of $268.22 | +107% | +162% | +223% |
| Implied annual return (5-yr CAGR) | +15.7% | +21.2% | +26.4% |
| Present value at 10% a year | $345 | $436 | $537 |
| Present value vs. today's price | +29% | +62% | +100% |
IX.Return vs. Today's Price
Pathos illustrative Year-5 (2030) price range, with each scenario's implied annual return. Red line: today's price. Dashed green line: the base-case Year-5 price discounted at 10% a year.
At $268.22 the base case implies about +21.2% a year over five years, with +15.7% in the bear case and +26.4% in the bull case. AppLovin pays no dividend, so that is the whole return. Discounted at a 10% required return, the base-case Year-5 price is worth $436 today, +62% versus the price, and even the bear case's present value ($345) is above it. Put the other way: holding today's P/E, a 10% annual return needs Year-5 EPS of about $25.22, which means EPS growth of about 8.0% a year in Years 3–5 after the consensus years. The cushion is large on paper because the price has fallen much faster than estimates; it disappears if growth stops after 2027, as the capped alternative shows.
X.Superinvestor Holders (Dataroma)
Which of the portfolio managers that Dataroma tracks own APP, according to their latest 13F filings? The figures below come only from Dataroma’s APP ownership page and activity page.
Source: Dataroma · retrieved 4 Oct 2026 · 13F period Q2 2026 (holdings at 30 Jun 2026)The table shows 1 of the 4 Dataroma-tracked holders: the only one with more than 5% of their portfolio in APP.
| Superinvestor | % of portfolio | Shares | Value (US$m) | Recent activity | 13F period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Dorsey - Dorsey Asset Management | 14.50% | 439,313 | 226.3 | Add 38.61% | Q2 2026 |
Dataroma shows 4 tracked superinvestors with a position at 30 Jun 2026. The largest weight belongs to Pat Dorsey - Dorsey Asset Management, at 14.50% of the manager’s reported portfolio. Dataroma also shows full exits in Q2 2026: Chase Coleman - Tiger Global Management (Sell 100%).
XI.Key Risks for Value Investors
Growth stalls in the core market
AppLovin's revenue still comes mostly from mobile-game advertisers. Edgewater Research argued in September 2026 that its share gains have stalled and expects fourth-quarter growth of only 8–9% sequentially; consensus 2027 EPS growth is already down to 28%.
Competition and pricing
Unity and the large platforms compete for the same ad budgets. Stronger competition could compress the spread AppLovin earns between what advertisers pay and what publishers receive, the source of its 78% operating margin.
E-commerce may not scale
The second growth engine is unproven. E-commerce client counts are rising, but advertisers need conversion data and creative testing before Axon performs well, and revenue from these clients is not disclosed.
Platform and privacy dependence
AppLovin depends on Apple's and Google's mobile operating systems and app stores and on data-use rules; a policy or privacy-law change could weaken Axon's targeting (10-K risk factors).
Litigation and reputation
Securities class actions filed in 2025, and another covering purchases from 12 February to 5 August 2026, remain pending. The CFO said on 5 August 2026 that an SEC inquiry had closed with no recommended action.
Control and key people
Class B holders control about 67% of the vote, and the business depends heavily on the CEO and a small engineering team; two senior executives stepped down this summer.
XII.Advice to Management
Pathos's long-term owner principles judge management by the per-share value it builds over many years, not by quarterly results. Applied to AppLovin's figures in this note, we would offer the following recommendations.
Repurchase shares only below a stated estimate of value
In the second quarter AppLovin repurchased and withheld 1.1 million shares for $551.3M, roughly $500 a share, and $1.5B for 3.3 million shares in the first half (about $465 each); the stock now trades at $268.22. Buybacks create value only when the price is below intrinsic value. We would publish how management estimates that value and use the remaining $1.8B authorisation only when the price is clearly below it.
Lead with GAAP earnings and free cash flow
Second-quarter Adjusted EBITDA was $1,613.8M against net income of $1,266.5M, and the headline measure excludes stock compensation of $85.8M in the quarter. Owners should see figures as management would want to see them in their place. We would present GAAP net income and free cash flow first, with stock pay treated as a cost.
Replace quarterly guidance with durable disclosure
Second-quarter revenue of $1.92 billion fell short of the $1.94 billion analysts expected and the stock dropped 19% the next day, while the share of revenue from e-commerce and other non-gaming advertisers is not disclosed. Short-term targets invite short-term thinking. We would drop quarterly guidance and instead report each year the revenue, client count and profitability of the businesses outside gaming.
Align insider selling with company buybacks
The CEO sold about $51M of stock in June 2026 at about $475–504, and a director sold 163,910 shares at $504.06, while the company itself was buying at roughly $500. With Class B holders controlling about 67% of the vote, outside owners rely on the board's fairness. We would have the independent chair set a policy that insiders do not sell while the company repurchases, and disclose it.
Keep the balance sheet conservative
Debt is $3.5 billion of senior notes against $3.05 billion of cash, and AppLovin drew $200 million on its $1.0 billion revolving credit facility in the first half of 2026. A business with this much cash generation should never need to borrow to buy back stock. We would fund repurchases only from free cash flow and keep the revolver for emergencies.
Opinion, not advice. These recommendations are Pathos's opinion, based on long-term owner principles and the figures in this note; they are not investment advice.
XIII.Conclusion
AppLovin is one of the most profitable businesses we have analysed, priced as if its growth is ending. The base case applies our non-cyclical rule but uses the 2027 consensus growth rate (27%) rather than analysts' stale 37.55% long-term figure, and still shows a large projected return because the price has fallen far faster than estimates. Capped like the chip companies, the return falls to about 5% a year. Which of those is closer depends on evidence the company does not yet disclose: how much of its revenue now comes from outside gaming.
Pathos view (illustrative). After a 60% fall this year, AppLovin trades at 17.1× 2026 consensus, and on our rule the base case returns about +21.2% a year (Year-5 range $555–$865), worth about $436 today at 10%. It is also among the most fragile projections in our coverage: with growth capped after 2027 the base case falls to about $343 (+5.0% a year). The price says the market doubts that growth will last; consensus still assumes it will. We would gain confidence if (a) e-commerce and other non-gaming advertisers became a disclosed and growing share of revenue, (b) quarterly growth held above the 27.7% consensus expects for 2027, or (c) estimate revisions turned upward. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold.
XIV.Sources & Notes
As-of dates. Share price, market capitalisation and price-based multiples use the Nasdaq close of $268.22 on 2 October 2026, the latest close when this note was prepared (the close on 30 September, the date used in our other notes, was $290.43). Consensus estimates, Finviz data and Dataroma holdings were retrieved on 4 October 2026. Annual figures are from Forms 10-K via SEC XBRL data; the latest quarter is from the 5 August 2026 results release and the 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026. Ratios and tangible book value are Pathos calculations unless attributed.
- AppLovin Corporation, Forms 10-K and 10-Q, via SEC XBRL company facts and the Form 10-K for 2025 (products and clients, restated continuing operations, Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow reconciliations, senior notes, risk factors).
- AppLovin Q2 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K, Ex. 99.1, 5 Aug 2026): revenue, net income, Adjusted EBITDA, cash flow, repurchases, shares outstanding, Q3 2026 guidance.
- AppLovin Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 Jun 2026 (filed 5 Aug 2026): income statement, balance sheet, Apps divestiture terms, repurchase programme, revolving credit facility, voting agreement, litigation, cover-page share count.
- AppLovin Form 8-K, 7 Apr 2026: executive succession and appointment of an independent chair.
- Yahoo Finance, APP analysis (retrieved 4 Oct 2026): 2026–2027 consensus EPS and revenue, ranges, analyst counts, estimate revisions; price history: 2 Oct and 30 Sep 2026 closes, 52-week range.
- Finviz, APP (retrieved 4 Oct 2026): analysts' five-year EPS growth estimate (37.55%), sales growth past five years, EV/EBITDA, year-to-date performance, mean price target, insider transactions.
- CNBC, 6 Aug 2026: Q2 revenue of $1.92B vs $1.94B expected (LSEG), 19% share-price fall, CEO comments, Piper Sandler downgrade.
- 24/7 Wall St, 23 Sep 2026: Edgewater Research view on stalled share gains and Unity competition; Citi/Store Leads e-commerce client count; class action covering 12 Feb–5 Aug 2026.
- Yahoo Finance, 5 Aug 2026: CFO statement that the SEC inquiry closed with no recommended action.
- SEC XBRL company facts (SEC EDGAR XBRL API, retrieved 4 Oct 2026): quarterly revenue, income and diluted EPS from continuing operations (Q1 2024 onward) from Forms 10-Q and 10-K (fiscal Q4 derived as full year minus nine months), and quarter-end equity, goodwill, intangible assets, preferred stock and shares outstanding. Used for the quarterly charts in Section IV.
- Yahoo Finance, APP daily price history (retrieved 4 Oct 2026): split-adjusted quarter-end closing prices for the trailing P/E line.
- Dataroma, APP superinvestor ownership page and activity page (retrieved 4 Oct 2026): ownership count, rank, % of all portfolios, hold price, holders, % of portfolio, shares, value and recent activity for 13F period Q2 2026 (holdings at 30 Jun 2026). 13F data are filed up to 45 days after quarter-end and cover long US-listed positions only.
Not verified or not used: the share of revenue from e-commerce and other non-gaming advertisers (not disclosed); FY2021–FY2022 results restated for the Apps sale (not published); Adjusted EBITDA before 2023 on a continuing basis; Q3 2026 results (due early November 2026).