I.Executive Summary
Micron is the largest U.S. maker of memory chips: DRAM (including the high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, stacked next to AI accelerators) and NAND flash. On 30 September 2026 it reported a record fiscal 2026 (53 weeks to 3 September 2026). Revenue rose 256% to $133.2 billion, GAAP operating margin was 74.6%, net income was $85.0 billion and diluted EPS was $74.33. Management guides first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue to $61.5 billion ± $1.5 billion at a gross margin of about 86%. These results are unaudited until the 10-K is filed.
On this year's numbers the stock looks inexpensive: 14.3× trailing GAAP earnings and 6.6× consensus fiscal 2027 earnings. A value investor should be careful with that arithmetic. Memory is one of the most cyclical industries in public markets. In the eleven years before fiscal 2026, Micron's operating margin ranged from −37% (FY2023) to 49% (FY2018) and averaged 17.5%. Cumulative free cash flow over those eleven years was $15.2 billion, less than a third of the $48.9 billion of cumulative net income, because the business has to reinvest about 37% of revenue in fabs and equipment. Measured against book value, the stock trades at 8.7×. At fiscal year-ends from 2015 to 2025 the ratio ranged from 1.2× to 2.5×.
Micron is executing brilliantly at the top of the strongest memory upcycle on record. The price assumes that peak economics largely persist. A value investor who normalizes earnings across the cycle finds no margin of safety at $1,065.
Our illustrative normalized-earnings DCF gives $177 (bear), $456 (base) and $1,173 (bull) per share, or $516 weighted by probability, against a price of $1,065.11. The price is about 2.3 times our base case and close to our bull case. New multi-year "Strategic Customer Agreements" with price floors are the strongest argument that this cycle is different (Section II). They are the main reason our base case keeps margins at double the historical average. *All values are Pathos's illustrative estimates, not price targets or recommendations.
II.Business Overview
What it sells. DRAM made up 76% of fiscal 2025 revenue ($28.6B of $37.4B) and 77% in the first nine months of fiscal 2026. NAND flash made up most of the rest. HBM is a 3D stack of DRAM dies that sits next to GPUs and other AI accelerators, and it is Micron's most strategic product. The FY2025 10-K says HBM3E 12-high made up most of HBM shipments in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 and that HBM4 samples had gone to multiple key customers. On the June 2026 call management said Micron had already shipped more than $1B of HBM4 revenue. Micron does not disclose total HBM revenue in the filings we reviewed. CNBC describes it as the only U.S.-based HBM maker and the smallest of the three HBM suppliers by share, behind SK hynix and Samsung.
How it reports. Since fiscal 2025 there are four business units. Fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue was: Cloud Memory (CMBU: hyperscalers, plus HBM for all data-center customers) $16.3B, Core Data Center (CDBU) $18.0B, Mobile & Client (MCBU) $13.1B, and Automotive & Embedded (AEBU) $6.8B.
Who buys it. About half of revenue has come from the top ten customers in each of the last three years. One customer accounted for 17% of fiscal 2025 revenue, mainly in CMBU, and about half of fiscal 2025 revenue came from the data-center end market. Since May 2023, China's Cyberspace Administration has barred operators of critical information infrastructure in China from buying Micron products.
Competition. Micron's 10-K names Samsung, SK hynix, Kioxia, Sandisk, CXMT and YMTC. DRAM is effectively a three-player market (Samsung, SK hynix, Micron) with Chinese entrants growing, and all three leaders are adding capacity.
What is new: Strategic Customer Agreements. In the third and fourth quarters of fiscal 2026 Micron signed multi-year take-or-pay agreements with binding volume commitments. The Q3 10-Q describes them: pricing on most is either fixed or held between a floor and a ceiling. For the largest agreements, the ceiling is roughly the market price of the second calendar quarter of 2026. Management expects these agreements to produce gross margins "well above our peak quarterly margins in any past cycle" even at floor prices. It expected about $22B of deposits and related financial commitments from the agreements signed to date, roughly $18B of it in cash. Micron received $12.7B of customer deposits in fiscal 2026, and non-current customer contract liabilities reached $12.9B at year-end. The individual contract terms, and the share of volume they cover, are not disclosed.
III.Share Price & Valuation Multiples
Price as of Nasdaq close, 30 Sep 2026 (pre-earnings) · Fundamentals: Q4 FY2026 release (unaudited)| Metric | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | $1,065.11 | Close, 30 Sep 2026; after-hours trades were roughly $1,040–1,078 following the release |
| 52-week range | $165.50 – $1,255.00 | High 25 Jun 2026. One-year change +537% (30 Sep 2025 close $167.32) |
| Market capitalisation | $1.20T | 1,129.4M shares (10-Q cover, 17 Jun 2026) × $1,065.11 |
| Enterprise value | $1.13T | Mkt cap + $5.18B debt − $73.45B cash & marketable investments |
| P/E, trailing (GAAP) | 14.3× | FY26 diluted EPS $74.33 (non-GAAP $75.52: 14.1×) |
| P/E, forward | 6.6× | FY27 consensus EPS $161.49 (36 analysts, compiled before Q4 results; likely non-GAAP) |
| P/E on Q1 FY27 guidance, annualized | 7.0× | GAAP EPS guide $37.84 × 4 = $151.36 |
| P/E on FY15–FY25 average EPS | 280× | Average diluted EPS $3.80 over eleven years (a through-cycle view) |
| EV / EBITDA | 10.4× | FY26 op. income $99.34B + D&A $9.50B |
| Price / Sales | 9.0× | FY26 revenue $133.19B (EV/Sales 8.5×) |
| Price / Book | 8.7× | Equity $138.38B; $122.52 per share. FY15–FY25 year-end range 1.2×–2.5× (median 1.7×) |
| Price / Free cash flow | 19.3× | FY26 adjusted FCF $62.31B (OCF less capex net of $3.3B government incentives) |
| Dividend yield | 0.06% | $0.15 quarterly, declared 30 Sep 2026 |
These multiples tell two stories depending on the denominator. On peak-cycle earnings Micron screens cheap. On through-cycle earnings (the eleven-year average EPS of $3.80, or $9.68 including fiscal 2026) and on book value, it looks very expensive against its own history. The fiscal 2027 consensus predates the Q4 release and the Q1 guide, so treat it as indicative. For context only (not an input to our work), the mean analyst price target compiled by Yahoo Finance was $1,520.76 (46 analysts). Our enterprise value does not subtract the $12.9B of customer deposits. Those are cash Micron holds against future deliveries, and our valuation treats them as a debt-like claim.
IV.Through-Cycle Financial Record
Source: Micron Forms 10-K (SEC XBRL data) for FY2015–FY2025; FY2026 from the 30 Sep 2026 earnings release (unaudited, 53 weeks). OM = GAAP operating margin.
| US$M | Revenue | Gross margin | Op. margin | Net income | Diluted EPS | Op. CF | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2015 | 16,192 | 32.2% | 18.5% | 2,899 | $2.47 | 5,208 | (4,021) | 1,187 |
| FY2016 | 12,399 | 20.2% | 1.4% | (276) | ($0.27) | 3,168 | (5,817) | (2,649) |
| FY2017 | 20,322 | 41.5% | 28.9% | 5,089 | $4.41 | 8,153 | (4,734) | 3,419 |
| FY2018 | 30,391 | 58.9% | 49.3% | 14,135 | $11.51 | 17,400 | (8,879) | 8,521 |
| FY2019 | 23,406 | 45.7% | 31.5% | 6,313 | $5.51 | 13,189 | (9,780) | 3,409 |
| FY2020 | 21,435 | 30.6% | 14.0% | 2,687 | $2.37 | 8,306 | (8,223) | 83 |
| FY2021 | 27,705 | 37.6% | 22.7% | 5,861 | $5.14 | 12,468 | (10,030) | 2,438 |
| FY2022 | 30,758 | 45.2% | 31.5% | 8,687 | $7.75 | 15,181 | (12,067) | 3,114 |
| FY2023 | 15,540 | −9.1% | −37.0% | (5,833) | ($5.34) | 1,559 | (7,676) | (6,117) |
| FY2024 | 25,111 | 22.4% | 5.2% | 778 | $0.70 | 8,507 | (8,386) | 121 |
| FY2025 | 37,378 | 39.8% | 26.1% | 8,539 | $7.59 | 17,525 | (15,857) | 1,668 |
| FY2026* | 133,188 | 80.7% | 74.6% | 84,969 | $74.33 | 89,675 | (30,712) | 58,963 |
| FY15–25 average | 23,694 | 33.2% | 17.5% | 4,444 | $3.80 | 10,060 | (8,679) | 1,381 |
Fiscal 2026 by quarter: the upcycle accelerates
| US$ millions | Q1 (Nov 25) | Q2 (Feb 26) | Q3 (May 26) | Q4 (Sep 26)* | Q1 FY27 guide |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 13,643 | 23,860 | 41,456 | 54,229 | 61,500 ± 1,500 |
| Gross margin | 56.0% | 74.4% | 84.6% | 86.8% | ~86.0% |
| Operating margin | 45.0% | 67.6% | 80.4% | 80.7% | n/a |
| Net income | 5,240 | 13,785 | 28,243 | 37,701 | n/a |
| Diluted EPS | $4.60 | $12.07 | $24.67 | $32.87 | $37.84 ± $1.00 |
Quarterly revenue quadrupled in a year (Q4 FY25 was $11.3B at a 44.7% gross margin), and gross margin went from 45% to 87%. Nothing in Micron's history resembles this: the previous peak quarterly gross margins came in fiscal 2018, when the full-year figure was 58.9%. Management attributes it to AI-driven demand against structurally constrained supply. The Q4 LSEG consensus was $31.61 EPS on $51.07B of revenue (per CNBC), which Micron beat on both lines.
V.Capital Intensity & Earnings Quality
Source: Micron 10-K XBRL data and 30 Sep 2026 release; Pathos calculation. The dashed line is the FY2015–FY2025 average (36.6%).
Memory is a capital race. To keep shrinking its cost per bit and to add wafers, Micron spent on average 36.6% of revenue on capex from fiscal 2015 to 2025, against depreciation of about 24% of revenue. That gap is why accounting profits have historically turned into much less free cash: $15.2B of FCF against $48.9B of net income over those eleven years (31% conversion). Fiscal 2026 looks very different only because revenue quadrupled. Capex of $30.7B was 23% of revenue.
- Capex is going up, not down. Micron estimated fiscal 2026 net capex at about $27B (actual: $27.37B). On its June 2026 earnings call management said it expects net capex in each quarter of fiscal 2027 to be above the fiscal fourth-quarter level (which came in at $10.77B), which implies more than $43B for the year. It also guided fiscal 2027 operating expenses about $1B higher. Projects include a new Boise, Idaho DRAM fab (first wafer output mid-calendar 2027), a second Boise fab (output late 2028), the first of up to four fabs in Clay, New York (supply from 2030), an HBM packaging plant in Singapore (capacity from 1H calendar 2027), a fab bought from PSMC in Tongluo, Taiwan in March 2026 for $1.8B (shipments from mid-2027), and assembly and test in Gujarat, India.
- Subsidies help. CHIPS Act grants of up to $6.4B and a 35% U.S. investment tax credit reduce the net cost. Micron received $3.3B of incentives in fiscal 2026. The grants carry conditions, including limits on share buybacks, and can be clawed back.
- Earnings quality in fiscal 2026 is high. Operating cash flow ($89.7B) exceeded net income ($85.0B), helped by $12.7B of customer deposits. Receivables rose to $36.2B from $9.3B a year earlier, which is about 65 days of fourth-quarter sales. Stock compensation was $1.33B (1.6% of net income). Inventory was $10.4B at year-end, and there have been no write-downs since fiscal 2023's $1.83B.
- The value lens. New fabs committed at peak prices add industry supply in 2027–2030. In past cycles, peak-margin capex was what set up the next downturn, and we see no reason to assume this cycle breaks that pattern.
VI.Balance Sheet & Book Value
| US$ millions | 28 Aug 2025 | 28 May 2026 | 3 Sep 2026* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & equivalents | 9,642 | 24,995 | 38,364 |
| Short- and long-term marketable investments | 2,294 | 5,133 | 35,089 |
| Total debt | 14,577 | 5,722 | 5,179 |
| Net cash / (net debt) | (2,641) | 24,406 | 68,274 |
| Non-current customer contract liabilities (deposits) | 142 | 568 | 12,895 |
| Receivables | 9,265 | 31,025 | 36,197 |
| Inventories | 8,355 | 8,567 | 10,372 |
| Property, plant & equipment | 46,590 | 56,426 | 63,310 |
| Total equity | 54,165 | 100,724 | 138,378 |
| Per share (on 1,122M / 1,129M shares) | $48.28 | $89.18 | $122.52 |
The balance sheet has been transformed within twelve months. Micron repaid $10.0B of debt in fiscal 2026, mostly ahead of maturity (booking $500M of prepayment losses in the first nine months), and net debt of $2.6B turned into $68.3B of net cash, or about $55B after deducting customer deposits. Book value per share rose from $48 to $123, almost all of it from retained fiscal 2026 earnings. Goodwill is only $1.15B, so tangible book is nearly the same.
Why book value matters here. For a capital-intensive, commodity-like business, book value (mostly fabs, equipment and cash) is a useful anchor across the cycle. At fiscal year-ends from 2015 to 2025, Micron's price-to-book ranged from 1.24× (FY2022) to 2.47× (FY2025), with a median of 1.74×. Applied to today's $122.52, that range implies $152–$302 per share (median $213). Today's 8.7× says the market is valuing Micron less like a memory manufacturer and more like a franchise with durable pricing power. That may prove right, but it is new, and it leaves no cushion if the cycle turns.
VII.Capital Allocation & Dilution
| US$ millions | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share repurchases | 2,432 | 425 | 300 | — | 650 |
| Dividends paid | 461 | 504 | 513 | 522 | 610 |
| Stock-based compensation | 514 | 596 | 833 | 972 | 1,333 |
| Repayments of debt | Micron borrowed through the FY2023 downturn; total debt was $14.6B at FY2025 year-end | 10,043 | |||
| Shares outstanding at year-end (M) | 1,094 | 1,098 | 1,109 | 1,122 | 1,129† |
- Modest dilution. Shares outstanding went from 1,084M (FY2015) to 1,129M (June 2026), up 4% in about eleven years, after cumulative buybacks. Stock compensation of $1.3B a year is small relative to current earnings but meaningful in a down-cycle.
- Priorities in the boom: deleverage, then build. Fiscal 2026 cash went mainly into capex ($30.7B), debt reduction ($10.0B) and cash and investments (+$61.5B). Buybacks were small ($650M) and the $0.15 quarterly dividend is unchanged, so the payout ratio is under 1%. About $2.16B was left under the $10B repurchase authorization at 28 May 2026, and repurchases are subject to CHIPS Act restrictions.
- The value question is what Micron does with ~$60B+ of annual free cash if the cycle holds. Buying back stock at 8.7× book would destroy value if earnings later revert. Holding cash through the cycle, as it is doing now, is the conservative choice.
VIII.Intrinsic Value Estimate (Illustrative)
Method. We use a five-year free-cash-flow-to-the-firm DCF covering fiscal 2027–2031, plus a terminal value built on normalized fiscal 2031 revenue and margin. Each year, free cash flow = revenue × GAAP operating margin × (1 − tax) + depreciation − capex − increase in working capital. Working capital is 15% of revenue, starting from the reported $20.6B at 3 September 2026 (15.5% of FY26 revenue). Capex is $45B in FY27 in every scenario (see Section V). After that it moves in a straight line from FY26's 23% of revenue to each scenario's long-run intensity by FY31. Depreciation rolls forward from FY26's $9.5B, closing 15% of the gap to the prior year's capex (roughly what happened from FY25 to FY26). In the terminal year it is 24% of revenue, the FY15–FY25 average. Cash flows use mid-year discounting from the start of fiscal 2027. Equity value = enterprise value + $73.45B cash and investments − $5.18B debt − $12.9B customer deposits. We deduct the deposits because they will be repaid in product rather than generate new cash. Per-share values use 1,150M diluted shares (company guidance for Q1 FY27).
| Assumption | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY27 / FY28 / FY29 / FY30 / FY31 ($B) | 200 / 130 / 80 / 55 / 42.8 | 245 / 215 / 175 / 145 / 133.2 | 255 / 280 / 260 / 250 / 250 |
| Anchor for FY31 (normalized) revenue | FY15–25 log-linear trend (6.0%/yr) extended to FY31 | FY26 revenue held: about 3× the historical trend | FY27 consensus ($250.5B) sustained |
| GAAP operating margin FY27 → FY31 | 70% → 45% → 25% → 17.5% → 17.5% | 77% → 65% → 50% → 38% → 35% | 80% → 78% → 65% → 55% → 50% |
| Anchor for terminal (normalized) margin | FY15–25 average (17.5%) | Midway between the average and the FY18 peak (49.3%), supported by SCA price floors | FY18 peak sustained |
| Long-run capex, % of revenue | 36.6% (FY15–25 avg.) | 32% | 28% |
| Tax rate | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Discount rate (WACC) | 12% | 11% | 10% |
| Terminal growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
Base case projection
| US$ millions | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | FY2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 245,000 | 215,000 | 175,000 | 145,000 | 133,188 |
| Operating margin | 77% | 65% | 50% | 38% | 35% |
| After-tax operating profit | 160,352 | 118,788 | 74,375 | 46,835 | 39,623 |
| Depreciation & amortization | 12,684 | 17,532 | 23,059 | 26,827 | 29,277 |
| Capex | (45,000) | (54,383) | (48,177) | (43,159) | (42,620) |
| (Increase) / decrease in working capital | (16,105) | 4,500 | 6,000 | 4,500 | 1,772 |
| Free cash flow | 111,932 | 86,436 | 55,258 | 35,003 | 28,052 |
Results
| US$ | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enterprise value | $147.7B | $469.3B | $1,293.1B |
| Terminal value share of EV | 3% | 44% | 67% |
| Equity value | $203.1B | $524.7B | $1,348.5B |
| Value per share (1,150M diluted) | $176.60 | $456.26 | $1,172.59 |
| vs. price of $1,065.11 | −83% | −57% | +10% |
| Illustrative probability | 30% | 50% | 20% |
| Probability-weighted value | $515.63 per share (−52% vs. price) | ||
Sensitivity of base-case value per share
| Terminal op. margin ↓ / WACC → | 10% | 11% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | $403 | $380 | $361 |
| 35% | $493 | $456 | $427 |
| 45% | $583 | $533 | $493 |
| FY31 revenue ↓ / terminal op. margin → | 25% | 35% | 45% |
|---|---|---|---|
| $80B | $344 | $390 | $436 |
| $133.2B (FY26 level) | $380 | $456 | $533 |
| $200B | $424 | $539 | $654 |
What the price implies. Keeping every other bull-case input, today's price requires normalized fiscal 2031 revenue of about $215B at a 50% operating margin, forever. At our base-case 35% margin it would take about $623B of revenue, 4.7 times fiscal 2026.
Cross-checks. (1) Normalized P/E: each scenario's FY31 normalized EPS times an assumed through-cycle P/E, plus $48 per share of net cash after deposits: bear $5.54 × 10 = $104; base $34.46 × 12 = $462; bull $92.39 × 14 = $1,342. (2) Book value: Micron's FY15–FY25 year-end price-to-book range of 1.24×–2.47× applied to today's $122.52 book value per share gives $152–$302. Both methods broadly agree with the DCF. The book-value check is the most conservative because it assumes the market goes back to valuing Micron as it did in past cycles.
IX.Margin of Safety
Pathos illustrative value range. The green zone marks prices at least 30% below the base-case value.
Margin of safety is the discount between price and estimated value. At $1,065.11 there is none: the price is about 133% above our base-case value of $456 (base value is 57% below the price) and 107% above the probability-weighted $516. It sits just below our bull case of $1,173. A 30% margin of safety on our base case would mean a price near $319. The stock last traded near that level at the end of December 2025, and its 52-week low is $165.50. Put simply, today's price assumes the bull case: margins near the prior-cycle peak for good and revenue several times its historical trend. That could happen if AI keeps memory scarce and the Strategic Customer Agreements hold, but it leaves nothing for error in an industry that has repeatedly punished peak-cycle optimism.
X.Key Risks for Value Investors
The cycle turns
Memory prices are set by industry supply and demand, and Micron's history shows how fast profits reverse:
- FY2016: Revenue −23% and operating margin 1.4%. Free cash flow −$2.6B.
- FY2018: Prior-cycle peak: operating margin 49.3%, EPS $11.51.
- FY2019–FY2020: Revenue fell 23%, then another 8%. EPS dropped to $2.37.
- FY2023: Revenue −49.5%, gross margin −9.1%, operating margin −37.0%, a $1.83B inventory write-down and a $5.8B net loss. Debt roughly doubled.
- FY2026: AI-driven upcycle: operating margin 74.6%, EPS $74.33 (unaudited).
Supply response
High margins attract capacity. Micron itself is adding fabs in Idaho, New York, Taiwan and Singapore, with output from 2027. CNBC reports that SK hynix and Samsung are building large new HBM fabs, and Micron's filings flag state-supported Chinese competitors (CXMT, YMTC) and the risk of "DRAM and NAND oversupply". HBM also uses much more wafer area per bit, and if HBM demand slows that capacity can flood conventional DRAM.
Contract terms are only partly disclosed
The Strategic Customer Agreements are take-or-pay with floors, but the largest also carry ceilings near second-quarter 2026 prices, which caps upside. A minority float with market prices. Volumes, durations, counterparties and what happens if a customer cannot perform are not disclosed. Deposits ($12.9B) are real cash, but they are also an obligation to deliver.
Execution, technology and capex
HBM yields, HBM4/HBM4E qualification and new EUV nodes are hard, and the filings cite yield barriers in multi-layer HBM stacks. Capex above $43B in fiscal 2027 raises the fixed-cost base. CHIPS Act grants carry conditions, including buyback restrictions, and can be clawed back.
Customer and end-market concentration
The top ten customers are about half of revenue, and one was 17% in fiscal 2025. Roughly half of revenue is data center, tying Micron to hyperscaler and AI-accelerator spending plans.
Geopolitics and trade
Since 2023 China's Cyberspace Administration has barred critical-infrastructure operators there from buying Micron products. Manufacturing is concentrated in Taiwan, Japan, Singapore and the U.S., and export controls, tariffs and retaliation are recurring risk factors.
Litigation
In May 2024 a jury awarded Netlist $445M over memory-module patents. Micron is appealing, and the USPTO's patent board has found the main asserted claim unpatentable. Further Netlist suits target HBM products, and YMTC has filed multiple patent suits in the U.S. and China.
Data and timing
FY2026 figures are unaudited until the 10-K is filed (last year's came on 3 Oct 2025). Our price predates the results, and the stock moved between about $1,040 and $1,078 after hours on 30 September.
XI.Conclusion
The case for. Micron is a technology leader in the scarcest input to AI systems. It has turned a net-debt balance sheet into $68B of net cash in a year, generates more than $60B of annual free cash, and has locked in multi-year take-or-pay contracts with price floors that management says will produce margins above any past-cycle peak even at the floor. On forward earnings it trades at under 7×.
The case against. Those forward earnings come from the top of a record cycle in a commodity industry. Over eleven years Micron converted less than a third of its earnings into free cash because of the capex required. The stock trades at 8.7× book against a historical range of 1.2–2.5×, and it is up more than 500% in a year. The contracts reduce the risk of a collapse but do not remove it, and their terms are largely undisclosed. Industry capacity, including Micron's own, is growing quickly.
Pathos view (illustrative). On normalized, through-cycle assumptions the shares trade well above our base-case value ($456) and near our bull case ($1,173). By value standards that is expensive: the price already assumes the most favourable outcome. We would revisit if (a) the price offered a 30%+ discount to a base case we still believe in, (b) the FY2026 10-K and later filings disclosed contract terms showing that normalized margins are structurally higher than we assume, or (c) a cyclical downturn reset the price closer to book-value-based ranges. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold.
XII.Sources & Notes
As-of dates. Share price, market capitalisation and all price-based multiples use the Nasdaq closing price of $1,065.11 on 30 September 2026, which was set before the after-hours earnings release. The 52-week range, consensus estimates and beta are as retrieved from Yahoo Finance on 30 September 2026. FY2026 fundamentals are from the Q4 FY2026 earnings release (unaudited; fiscal year ended 3 September 2026), and earlier years are from audited 10-K data. Ratios, free cash flow, historical price-to-book and all valuation outputs are Pathos calculations.
- Micron Technology, Inc., "Micron Technology, Inc. Reports Record Fiscal Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2026 Results", Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K (30 Sep 2026): FY2026 and Q4 results, balance sheet, cash flows, business-unit revenue, Q1 FY2027 guidance, dividend.
- Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 28 May 2026 (filed 25 Jun 2026): Strategic Customer Agreements, expected deposits, capex estimate, CHIPS Act and fab plans, repurchase authorization, DRAM/NAND revenue, litigation, cover share count.
- Forms 10-Q for the quarters ended 27 Nov 2025 and 26 Feb 2026: Q1 and Q2 FY2026 results.
- Form 10-K for fiscal year ended 28 Aug 2025 (filed 3 Oct 2025): business description, HBM products, competitors, customer concentration, employees, FY2023–FY2025 figures.
- SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts for CIK 723125: FY2015–FY2025 income statement, cash flow, equity, share counts, buybacks, dividends, stock compensation and inventory write-downs.
- Form 8-K, 26 Aug 2026: appointment of Manish Bhatia (President & COO) and Scott DeBoer (President & CTPO). Form 8-K, 25 Mar 2026: debt tender offers.
- Yahoo Finance, MU price history and analyst estimates (retrieved 30 Sep 2026): 30 Sep 2026 close, 52-week range, month-end closes used for historical price-to-book, FY2027/FY2028 consensus EPS (36 analysts), FY2027 revenue consensus, mean target $1,520.76 (46 analysts), beta 2.22.
- CNBC, "Micron beats on earnings and issues strong guidance as global memory shortage continues" (30 Sep 2026): LSEG consensus, only U.S.-based HBM maker, relative HBM share, one-year stock performance.
- FXStreet, "Micron impresses with $54.2 billion in Q4 revenue" (30 Sep 2026): corroborates the ~$1,065 close and the after-hours range of ~$1,040–1,078.
- Roic AI, Micron Q3 FY2026 earnings call transcript (24 Jun 2026): HBM4 revenue above $1B, FY2027 capex and opex commentary (third-party transcript).
Not verified or not used: the audited FY2026 10-K (not yet filed; figures may change); a formal FY2027 capex figure (only the qualitative quarterly comment); total HBM revenue and market share (not disclosed); the terms, counterparties and total value of the Strategic Customer Agreements concluded after 28 May 2026; the date of the 52-week low; diluted share count at 3 Sep 2026 beyond the ~1.15B guidance; post-earnings trading on 1 Oct 2026. The consensus EPS figures were compiled before the Q4 release and are likely non-GAAP. The valuation model's calculations are kept with the site files (model/mu_valuation.py) for audit.