Independent research for educational purposes only  ·  Not investment advice  ·  Prices as of 29 Sep 2026 close
Independent Equity Researchpathosinvestments.comPublished 30 September 2026
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Research Note · Initiation · Value Lens

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)

Published 30 September 2026NASDAQ: SMCIServers, storage & AI rack systemsFiscal year ends 30 June
Price · 29 Sep 26$41.02
Base value*~$43
Range*$18–92

I.Executive Summary

Supermicro designs and builds servers, storage and full rack-scale data-center systems, and has become one of the largest builders of NVIDIA-based AI server racks. In fiscal 2026 (the year to 30 June 2026) revenue rose 77.8% to $39.06 billion, net income was $2.23 billion and diluted EPS was $3.26. Management guides fiscal 2027 revenue to $65–72 billion.

FY26 Revenue$39.1B+77.8% year on year
FY26 Gross margin10.8%18.0% in FY23
FY26 Free cash flow−$7.0B5-yr total: −$7.9B
Shares outstanding656.9M+25.6% since FY22

On headline multiples the stock looks cheap: about 9.5× consensus fiscal 2027 earnings and 0.69× sales. The value question is whether those earnings turn into cash, and so far they have not. Over the last five fiscal years SMCI reported $5.36 billion of cumulative net income and −$7.91 billion of cumulative free cash flow. The gap was filled with bank debt, convertible notes, new common stock and, in June 2026, $4.31 billion of mandatory convertible preferred stock. The governance record is also blemished: a 2020 SEC accounting settlement, a 2024 auditor resignation followed by months of delayed filings, and a 2026 export-control indictment of three individuals associated with the company.

SMCI is a fast-growing, thin-margin, capital-hungry business, and today's price is roughly our base-case value. The growth is real, but at this price a value investor is not paid for the risks.

Our illustrative estimate of intrinsic value is $18 (bear), $43 (base) and $92 (bull) per share, or $45 weighted by probability, against a price of $41.02. That leaves a margin of safety of roughly 5–10%, well short of the 25–35% we would want given the risks set out in Section X. *All values are Pathos's illustrative estimates, not price targets or recommendations.

II.Business Overview

What it sells. SMCI sells application-optimized servers and storage systems, complete liquid- or air-cooled racks, and more recently whole-data-center "Data Center Building Block Solutions" (DCBBS). It also sells subsystems such as motherboards, chassis and power supplies. Its fiscal 2026 portfolio included systems for NVIDIA's Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra platforms (GB300 NVL72, GB200 NVL72, HGX B300/B200), and it has announced support for NVIDIA's upcoming Vera Rubin platform. Manufacturing is in-house, in the US, Taiwan and the Netherlands. The company was founded in San Jose in 1993 by Charles Liang, who remains President, CEO and Chairman.

Who buys it. SMCI sold to more than 1,000 customers in over 100 countries in each of the last three fiscal years, but revenue is concentrated. One customer accounted for 28.1% of fiscal 2026 net sales, and the United States for 70.9% of revenue.

Who supplies it. One supplier accounted for 63.1% of total purchases in fiscal 2026 (64.4% in FY25, 65.4% in FY24). The 10-K does not name it. Given the GPU-centric product mix, it is widely assumed to be NVIDIA; that identification is our inference, not a company disclosure.

Competition. In its 10-K the company names global vendors (Cisco, Dell, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Lenovo) and original design manufacturers (Foxconn, Quanta Computer, Wiwynn), which it says benefit from scale and very low-cost manufacturing.

Economics in one line. SMCI is a high-volume system integrator. Gross margins ran between 10.8% and 18.0% over the last five years, and each dollar of growth needs a lot of inventory and receivables.

Conventions used in this noteSMCI's fiscal year ends 30 June, so "FY2026" runs from 1 July 2025 to 30 June 2026. The fourth quarter of FY2026 is the latest reported period, so FY2026 figures are also the trailing twelve months. Per-share data reflect the 10-for-1 stock split of 30 September 2024. Dollar figures are US$, and "B" and "M" mean billions and millions.

III.Share Price & Valuation Multiples

Price as of Nasdaq close, 29 Sep 2026 · Fundamentals: FY2026 10-K
MetricValueBasis
Share price$41.02Close, 29 Sep 2026
52-week range$19.48 – $58.78Low 23 Mar 2026 · high 9 Oct 2025 (intraday)
Market capitalisation$26.95B656.97M shares (10-K cover, 31 Jul 2026) × $41.02
Enterprise value$32.46BMkt cap + $8.72B debt + $4.31B preferred (liq. pref.) − $7.52B cash
P/E, trailing (GAAP)12.6×FY26 diluted EPS $3.26
P/E, trailing (non-GAAP)11.3×FY26 non-GAAP diluted EPS $3.63 (excludes stock comp)
P/E, forward9.5×FY27 consensus EPS $4.34 (18 analysts), likely non-GAAP
EV / EBITDA11.5×FY26 op. income $2,770M + D&A $54M = $2,824M
EV / Adjusted EBITDA9.4×Company-defined, adds back $412M stock comp: $3,447M
Price / Sales0.69×FY26 revenue $39,063M (EV/Sales 0.83×)
Price / Book2.6×Common equity $10.25B ($14.48B less $4.23B preferred); $15.61/share
Price / Free cash flown/mFY26 FCF was −$6.97B; five-year cumulative −$7.91B
Dividend yield (common)NoneThe company has never paid a common dividend

The low multiples reflect the business model (thin margins, heavy working capital), the governance discount and cyclical risk around AI capital spending. The forward P/E depends on consensus figures that rose sharply after the August results: the fiscal 2027 consensus was reported at $3.35 thirty days before mid-September. On a GAAP basis, management guided first-quarter fiscal 2027 EPS to $0.89–0.98 per diluted share on revenue of $14.5–15.5 billion. For context only (not an input to our work), the mean analyst price target compiled by Yahoo Finance was $42.38 (16 analysts). Our enterprise value counts the preferred stock at its $4.31B liquidation preference. On an as-converted basis (130.7M extra shares at today's price) the equity would be worth about $32.3B.

IV.Five-Year Financial Record

Annual revenue, US$ billionsFY2022–FY2026 actual · FY2027 company guidance
$75B$50B$25B 5.27.115.022.039.165–72 FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26FY27 guide GM 15.4%GM 18.0%GM 13.8%GM 11.1%GM 10.8%not actual

Source: SMCI Forms 10-K (FY2022–FY2026); FY2027 range is management guidance from the 11 Aug 2026 results release, not a reported result. GM = gross margin.

US$ millions, FY to 30 JunFY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026
Revenue5,1967,12314,98921,97239,063
  Growth46.1%37.1%110.4%46.6%77.8%
Gross profit8001,2832,0612,4304,227
  Gross margin15.4%18.0%13.8%11.1%10.8%
Operating income3357611,2111,2532,770
  Operating margin6.5%10.7%8.1%5.7%7.1%
Net income2856401,1531,0492,230
  Net margin5.5%9.0%7.7%4.8%5.7%
Diluted EPS (split-adj.)$0.53$1.14$1.92$1.68$3.26
Stock-based compensation3354232314412
Operating cash flow(441)664(2,486)1,660(6,810)
Capital expenditure(45)(37)(124)(127)(162)
Free cash flow(486)627(2,610)1,532(6,972)
Diluted shares (wtd. avg., M)536.2559.7602.1628.4697.3
Source: SMCI Forms 10-K and SEC XBRL data. Free cash flow = operating cash flow − purchases of property, plant & equipment (Pathos calculation). FY2022 growth is measured against FY2021 revenue of $3,557M.

Fiscal 2026 by quarter: an uneven year

US$ millionsQ1 (Sep 25)Q2 (Dec 25)Q3 (Mar 26)Q4 (Jun 26)
Revenue5,01812,68210,24311,120
Gross margin9.3%6.3%9.9%17.5%
Operating margin3.6%3.7%6.1%13.4%
Net income1684014831,178
Diluted EPS$0.26$0.60$0.72$1.62
Source: Forms 10-Q for Q1–Q3 FY2026; Q4 from the 11 Aug 2026 results release (full-year totals match the 10-K).

More than half of fiscal 2026 net income came in the fourth quarter, when gross margin jumped to 17.5% from 9.9% the quarter before. Management credits a richer mix of enterprise customers and wider adoption of DCBBS. For the full year, though, the 10-K says gross margin fell (to 10.8% from 11.1%) because of "competitive pricing to gain market share, change in product and customer mix, and higher manufacturing related expenses." A value investor should not extrapolate one strong quarter. Our base case assumes margins well below Q4's level.

V.Cash Conversion & Earnings Quality

Net income vs. free cash flow, US$ billionsFY2022–FY2026
+$2B$0−$2B−$4B−$6B 0.290.641.151.052.23 −0.490.63−2.611.53−6.97 FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26 Net incomeFree cash flow

Source: SMCI Forms 10-K; FCF = operating cash flow − capex (Pathos calculation).

This is the crux of the value debate. SMCI's profits are real accounting profits, but they have been consumed by working capital as the company grows. In fiscal 2026 the cash flow statement shows inventories absorbing $8.88B and receivables $3.92B, partly offset by customer deposits (deferred revenue, +$1.88B) and payables (+$0.96B). Year-end inventory was $12.9B, about 135 days of cost of sales against 87 days a year earlier.

  • Encouraging: operating cash flow turned positive in the fourth quarter (+$747M), and deferred revenue, which is cash received before delivery, rose to $2.61B (current plus non-current) from $0.73B.
  • Cautionary: inventory write-downs were $188M in FY26 and $232M in FY25. Inventory valuation and revenue recognition are the auditor's two critical audit matters. A demand air-pocket after a heavy inventory build is a classic hardware risk.
  • Stock compensation was $412M in FY26 (1.1% of revenue, about 18% of net income). We treat it as a real cost, so our valuation uses GAAP margins, not the company's non-GAAP figures.

VI.Balance Sheet Strength

US$ millions, at 30 JunFY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026
Cash & equivalents4401,6705,1707,521
Bank lines & term loans2904761124,056
Convertible notes (carrying)—1,6984,6454,664
Net cash / (net debt)150(504)412(1,199)
Mandatory conv. preferred (liq. pref.)———4,313
Accounts receivable1,1482,7372,2046,125
  Days sales outstanding59673757
Inventories1,4464,3334,68012,896
  Days inventory (on cost of sales)9012287135
Working capital1,8056,5869,95720,566
  Current ratio2.3×3.8×5.2×3.9×
SMCI stockholders' equity1,9725,4176,30214,479
Source: SMCI Forms 10-K (balance sheets). Days and ratios are Pathos calculations on year-end balances. FY2026 equity includes $4,226M attributable to the preferred stock.

Liquidity looks adequate. Current assets are 3.9 times current liabilities, and management states its sources of funds are sufficient for the next twelve months. Fiscal 2026 interest expense of $195M was covered about 14 times by operating income. The structure has changed sharply, though. Principal debt now totals roughly $8.8B: $4.06B of bank facilities (JPMorgan revolver $2.0B, CTBC facilities $1.76B, other loans) at rates of 1.3%–5.7%, and $4.73B of convertible notes. On top of that sits $4.31B of preferred stock. About $2.04B of bank borrowings are due within a year. The balance sheet is sound only as long as inventory keeps converting to cash.

VII.Capital Allocation & Dilution

DateTransactionSizePrice / terms
Dec 2023Common stock offering (23.2M new shares)$583M net$26.20
Feb 20240% convertible notes due 2029 (amended Feb 2025 to 3.50% coupon)$1,725MConv. $83.44
Mar 2024Common stock offering (20.0M shares)$1,732M net$87.50
Feb 20252.25% convertible notes due Jul 2028$700MConv. $61.06
Jun 20250% convertible notes due 2030, with capped calls$2,300MConv. $55.20
Jun 2025Share repurchase (4.89M shares, with the 2030 notes)$200M$40.89
Jun 2026Common stock offering (52.3M shares incl. option)$1,407M net$27.50
Jun 20267.00% Series A mandatory convertible preferred (SMCIP)$4,313M liq.Converts ~1 Jun 2029
Jun 2026At-the-market equity program establishedUp to $1,250MNo sales by 30 Jun 2026
Source: FY2026 Form 10-K, Notes 9 and 13. Share prices split-adjusted.
  • Persistent dilution. Shares outstanding rose from 523.1M at FY2022 year-end to 656.9M at FY2026 year-end (+25.6%). Diluted weighted shares rose from 536.2M to 697.3M.
  • More to come. The preferred stock converts in 2029 into 130.7M–156.8M common shares (30.3040–36.3640 shares per $1,000 of preference, depending on the price then), which is 20–24% of today's count. It carries a 7% dividend, about $302M a year, payable in cash or stock; the first ($14.7778 per preferred share) was declared in cash, payable 1 Sep 2026. The three convertible notes would add about 73.8M shares if converted, though today's price is below all three conversion prices and capped calls partly offset the 2029 and 2030 notes.
  • Timing of capital decisions. The company sold stock at $26.20 (Dec 2023) and $27.50 (Jun 2026) and bought back stock at $40.89 (Jun 2025). Issuing $5.7B of equity-like securities near the lows is the opposite of what value investors want to see, though the working-capital needs of fiscal 2027 growth largely explain it. There is no standing buyback program, and there is a $1.25B at-the-market program that allows new share sales from July 2026. We could not verify whether any shares have been sold under it since 30 June 2026.

VIII.Intrinsic Value Estimate (Illustrative)

Read this firstThis is Pathos's illustrative estimate to show how the numbers fit together. It is not a price target and not a recommendation. Every input below other than the reported starting balances is an assumption chosen by us, and small changes to the assumptions change the answer materially.

Method. We use a five-year free-cash-flow-to-the-firm DCF covering fiscal years 2027–2031, plus a terminal value. For each year, free cash flow = revenue × operating margin × (1 − tax rate), minus the increase in operating working capital, minus net capital spending (capex less depreciation). Working capital is modelled as a target percentage of revenue, starting from the reported $15.08B at 30 June 2026 (current assets excluding cash of $20.20B, less current liabilities excluding bank debt of $5.12B). Cash flows use a mid-year discounting convention from the start of fiscal 2027. Equity value = enterprise value + $7.52B cash − $8.72B debt. Per-share value is on an as-converted basis: 656.97M common shares plus the preferred conversion shares at the resulting value, with convertible notes treated as converted only when value exceeds their conversion price.

AssumptionBearBaseBull
FY2027 revenue$55.0B$65.0B$72.0B
  vs. guidance of $65–72BMissLow endHigh end
Revenue growth FY28 / FY29 / FY30 / FY31−10% / 0% / 3% / 3%12% / 6% / 4% / 3%20% / 12% / 8% / 5%
Operating margin (GAAP, after stock comp)5.0%6.5%8.5%
  Reference: FY25 5.7% · FY26 7.1% · FY24 8.1% · FY23 10.7%
Tax rate20%20%20%
Operating working capital, % of revenue30%25%22%
Net capex (capex − D&A), % of revenue0.3%0.3%0.3%
Discount rate (WACC)12%11%10%
Terminal growth2.0%2.5%3.0%
All rows are Pathos assumptions. The tax rate is close to the ~20.1% management assumed for Q1 FY27 guidance; working-capital intensity sits within the ~21%–39% of revenue seen at FY2023–FY2026 year-ends; net capex approximates FY26 ($162M capex vs $54M D&A). The discount rates are deliberately high, reflecting a reported beta near 2 and governance risk.

Base case projection

US$ millionsFY2027FY2028FY2029FY2030FY2031
Revenue65,00072,80077,16880,25582,662
After-tax operating profit3,3803,7864,0134,1734,298
Increase in working capital(1,166)(1,950)(1,092)(772)(602)
Net capex(195)(218)(232)(241)(248)
Free cash flow2,0191,6172,6893,1613,449
Pathos illustrative projection. Note that the base case assumes FCF turns positive in FY27 largely because inventory was already built ahead of FY27 shipments; if working capital keeps outgrowing revenue, FCF stays negative and value falls.

Results

US$BearBaseBull
Enterprise value$16.2B$35.1B$75.3B
  Terminal value share of EV58%72%78%
Equity value$15.0B$33.9B$78.8B
As-converted shares813.8M787.7M861.5M
Value per share$18.46$43.04$91.51
vs. price of $41.02−55%+5%+123%
Illustrative probability30%50%20%
Probability-weighted value$45.36 per share (+11% vs. price)
Bear uses the maximum preferred conversion (36.364 shares per preferred share) because value falls below $27.50. In the bull case all three convertible notes are treated as converted ($4.73B debt removed, 73.8M shares added; capped calls ignored). Probabilities are subjective and tilted toward the bear case because of the governance and cash-conversion record.

Sensitivity of base-case value per share

Operating margin ↓ / WACC →10%11%12%
5.5%$39.2$34.1$29.5
6.5%$49.3$43.0$38.1
7.5%$59.3$52.0$46.1
All other base-case assumptions held constant. A one-point change in operating margin moves value by about $9 per share.

Multiples cross-check. Applying assumed P/E multiples to each scenario's FY2027 earnings per as-converted share (787.7M shares) gives: bear $2.79 × 8 = $22; base $4.29 × 11 = $47; bull $6.22 × 14 = $87. The multiples are our assumptions. The base-case EPS of $4.29 is close to the $4.34 consensus, and the resulting range is broadly consistent with the DCF.

IX.Margin of Safety

$0$25$50$75$100 Price $41.02 Bear $18 MoS 30%: ~$30 Base $43 Bull $92

Pathos illustrative value range. The green zone marks prices at least 30% below the base-case value.

Margin of safety is the discount between price and estimated value. At $41.02 the stock is about 5% below our base-case value of $43.04 and about 10% below the probability-weighted $45.36. For a business with thin margins, negative free cash flow, rising share count and an unresolved regulatory overhang, we would want at least 25–35%. On our base case a 30% margin of safety implies a price near $30. The stock has traded there recently: it closed at $29.33 on 30 June 2026 and hit an intraday low of $19.48 on 23 March 2026. Put differently, today's price already assumes roughly the low end of fiscal 2027 guidance and margins close to fiscal 2026's, with little cushion if either disappoints.

X.Key Risks for Value Investors

1

Accounting and governance history

The record is long, and the two most recent episodes are resolved only in part.

  • Aug 2020: SEC charged SMCI with prematurely recognizing revenue and understating expenses over FY2015–FY2017. The company paid a $17.5M penalty without admitting or denying the findings, and the CEO reimbursed $2.1M in stock-sale profits.
  • 27 Aug 2024: A short seller (Hindenburg Research; see Reuters coverage in Section XII) alleged accounting manipulation, self-dealing and sanctions evasion. The company called the report false or inaccurate.
  • 28–30 Aug 2024: SMCI delayed its FY2024 10-K and filed a notice of late filing (Form 12b-25). Nasdaq sent a non-compliance notice on 17 Sep 2024.
  • 24 Oct 2024: Ernst & Young resigned as auditor during its first audit. Its letter cited information that had "led us to no longer be able to rely on management's and the Audit Committee's representations." The company said it disagreed with the decision.
  • 18 Nov 2024: BDO USA was appointed as auditor, and a compliance plan was submitted to Nasdaq.
  • 2 Dec 2024: A Special Committee (with Cooley LLP and Secretariat Advisors) found no substantial concerns about the integrity of senior management or the Audit Committee. It recommended a new CFO and a Chief Accounting Officer, and the Board adopted all recommendations.
  • 25 Feb 2025: The FY2024 10-K and two delayed 10-Qs were filed, and Nasdaq confirmed compliance. Annual results for FY2022–FY2023 were not restated; they match the originally filed figures.
  • FY2026 10-K (Aug 2026): Three previously reported material weaknesses were remediated. One IT-general-controls material weakness remains, so internal control over financial reporting was not effective at 30 June 2026. BDO nonetheless issued an audit opinion on the financial statements. The 10-K also lists David Weigand as CFO, the role the Special Committee recommended refilling.
2

Export-control investigations

On 19 March 2026 federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York unsealed an indictment of three individuals employed by or associated with the company, including former SVP and director Yih-Shyan (Wally) Liaw, for an alleged conspiracy to violate export controls. SMCI is not a defendant. An independent Board investigation (Munger, Tolles & Olson with AlixPartners) found no evidence that current senior management knew of the alleged diversion, and no basis to conclude prior financial statements are unreliable. SEC, grand-jury, DOJ and Commerce Department (BIS) inquiries remain open and could lead to penalties or remediation requirements.

3

Cash conversion and inventory

Five-year cumulative free cash flow is −$7.9B against $5.4B of net income. Inventory stood at $12.9B at year-end. If AI demand pauses, or a new GPU generation makes stock obsolete, write-downs and discounting could erase much of a year's earnings.

4

Margin pressure and competition

Gross margin has fallen from 18.0% (FY23) to 10.8% (FY26), which the company attributes partly to pricing to win share. Dell, HPE, Lenovo and low-cost ODMs such as Foxconn and Quanta compete for the same AI build-outs. Our base case depends on the Q4 FY26 margin improvement holding in part.

5

Customer concentration

One customer was 28.1% of FY26 sales. In FY25 four customers were each 11%–21%. At 30 June 2026, three customers made up 23.0%, 17.1% and 12.5% of receivables. Losing or delaying a single hyperscale or "neocloud" program could swing results.

6

Dependence on one supplier (NVIDIA, by inference)

One supplier provided 63.1% of FY26 purchases. Allocation, pricing or product-timing decisions by that supplier, as well as component shortages (the 10-K cites memory, storage, GPUs and CPUs), directly limit SMCI's revenue and margins.

7

Dilution and capital structure

About 131M–157M shares are due from the preferred in 2029, up to about 74M more if the notes convert, a $1.25B at-the-market program and about $412M a year of stock compensation. Per-share value can lag company-level growth.

8

Cyclicality and forecast risk

FY2027 guidance implies 66%–84% revenue growth, driven by AI data-center spending that may not stay linear. Our bear case (a $55B miss followed by a 10% decline) shows how quickly value falls when the cycle turns.

XI.Conclusion

The case for. SMCI is a genuine beneficiary of AI infrastructure spending. Revenue has grown more than sevenfold since FY2022, management guides to another $65–72B year, and the fourth quarter showed margins can improve with mix. At about 9.5× forward consensus earnings and 0.69× sales it is not priced like a typical AI winner. Its accounts are current and audited, the late-filing episode is resolved, and three of four material weaknesses have been fixed.

The case against. Earnings have not reached shareholders as cash. Free cash flow has been negative in three of the last five years, and cumulatively deeply negative. The share count keeps rising, and the company has repeatedly raised equity at low prices. Margins are thin and contested, a single customer and a single supplier dominate, and regulatory investigations remain open.

Pathos view (illustrative). On our assumptions the shares trade close to base-case value ($43) inside a very wide range ($18–$92). That is roughly fair value, not a bargain. We would revisit the stock if (a) free cash flow turns sustainably positive, (b) the price offers a 30%+ discount to a base case we still believe in, or (c) the regulatory inquiries close without material penalties. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold.

XII.Sources & Notes

As-of dates. Share price, market capitalisation and all price-based multiples use the Nasdaq closing price of $41.02 on 29 September 2026. The 52-week range and analyst consensus are as retrieved on 30 September 2026. Fundamentals are from the FY2026 Form 10-K (period ended 30 June 2026, filed 31 August 2026) unless stated. Ratios, free cash flow, days metrics and all valuation outputs are Pathos calculations.

  1. Super Micro Computer, Inc., Form 10-K for fiscal year ended 30 June 2026 (filed 31 Aug 2026): financial statements, Notes 8, 9, 13, customer and supplier concentration, legal proceedings, Item 9A controls.
  2. "Supermicro Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results", Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K (11 Aug 2026): Q4 figures, non-GAAP reconciliations, adjusted EBITDA, Q1 and FY2027 guidance.
  3. Form 10-K for fiscal year ended 30 June 2025 (filed 28 Aug 2025): FY2023–FY2025 figures and FY2024 balance sheet.
  4. Form 10-K for fiscal year ended 30 June 2024 (filed 25 Feb 2025): FY2022 split-adjusted figures.
  5. Forms 10-Q for Q1 FY26, Q2 FY26 and Q3 FY26: quarterly results.
  6. SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts for CIK 1375365: cross-check of annual and quarterly values and of FY2022–FY2023 balances.
  7. Form 8-K filings: 28 Aug 2024 (late 10-K), 20 Sep 2024 (Nasdaq notice), 30 Oct 2024 (EY resignation), 18 Nov 2024 (BDO appointment), 2 Dec 2024 (Special Committee findings), 26 Feb 2025 (Nasdaq compliance regained), 5 Aug 2026 (preferred dividend).
  8. U.S. SEC, "SEC Charges Super Micro and Former CFO in Connection with Widespread Accounting Violations", press release 2020-190 (25 Aug 2020).
  9. Yahoo Finance, SMCI price history and analyst estimates (retrieved 30 Sep 2026): 29 Sep 2026 close, 52-week range, FY2027 consensus EPS $4.34 (18 analysts), mean price target $42.38 (16 analysts), beta.
  10. Reuters, "Hindenburg takes aim at AI server maker Super Micro with short position" (27 Aug 2024): identifies the short seller behind the report described in the 10-K.
  11. MarketBeat, SMCI trading report, 29 Sep 2026: corroborates the $41.02 last trade.
  12. 24/7 Wall St., "The SMCI Number I'm Watching…" (18 Sep 2026): FY2027 consensus 30 days earlier ($3.35).

Not verified or not used: share sales under the at-the-market program after 30 June 2026 (none disclosed as of the 10-K cover date); the name of the 63.1% supplier (not disclosed); the identity of the 28.1% customer (not disclosed); outstanding options and RSUs beyond what the diluted share counts capture; FY2027 first-quarter results (the quarter ends 30 Sep 2026 and has not been reported). The valuation model's calculations are kept with the site files (model/smci_dcf.py) for audit.

Not investment advice. This research note is general information for educational purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, and it does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security. The valuation figures are Pathos Investments' illustrative estimates, based on the stated assumptions, and may be materially wrong. Figures come from the sources listed, which may contain errors or be revised. Prices and facts change after the stated dates. Pathos Investments is not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed professional before making investment decisions.