Rep. Mike Kelly R-PA16

How the hit rate works. Prices are daily closes from Yahoo Finance's free chart data; the benchmark is SPY (S&P 500 ETF). (1) Round trips: for each member, ticker and owner, buys are paired with later sells first-in, first-out. Each pair is scored over the actual holding period: the stock's return from buy date to sell date minus SPY's return over the same days. A pair is right if that excess is positive. (2) Still held: a buy with no matching sale is scored from the buy date to the latest close, but only once it is at least 90 days old. (3) Sells with no earlier buy in the data are scored on the 90 days after the sale; right if the stock lagged SPY (the excess is shown inverted, so positive = good call). (4) Options are scored as bets on the underlying stock, using the stock's return versus SPY (no option prices): buying a call, exercising a call, or selling/writing a put counts as a bullish (buy) call; buying a put or selling a call counts as bearish (sell). An opening option trade is paired with a later closing trade of the same contract (type, strike, expiry) when the data has one; otherwise it is scored on the 90 days after the trade. Options whose call/put type is not stated are shown but not scored. Options are drawn as outlined rings on the charts. (5) Weighting: trades are weighted by the midpoint of the reported dollar range, which is approximate; partial sales split a buy across several round trips. (6) Annualized excess = weighted excess divided by weighted holding days, times 365, so short and long holds can be compared. Only members with at least 10 scored items are ranked; under 30 is a small sample. Disclosures are ranges, dates can be wrong, trades before 2024, options, bonds and private holdings are not included, and nothing here accounts for dividends, taxes, or the disclosure delay. This is an educational measure, not a signal and not investment advice.

Education, not investment advice. This page reorganizes public disclosures so you can see what members of Congress reported. A disclosure is not evidence of wrongdoing, and past trades say nothing about future returns. Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. Members have up to 45 days to disclose, so recent trades may be missing. Paper filings that need manual review, trades without a confident ticker match, options, mutual funds, bonds and private holdings are not shown. Always check the source filing.